NATO leaders will meet virtually today to discuss reactions to Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine. Sweden and Finland will also be represented at the meeting.
In Warsaw, Polish President Andrzej Duda hosts fellow Bucharest Nine leaders Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia for discussions on Ukraine.
By Colm Quinn โ Foreign Policy brife
The Ukrainian capital Kyiv came under heavy missile bombardment from Russian forces early Friday morning as Russiaโs all-out assault continues.
Russian ground forces have advanced across Ukraineโs borders from the northeast, close to the city of Kharkiv, from the south, via Crimea and the port city of Odessa, and from the north, where Russian troops are now in control of the Chernobyl nuclear exclusion zone after they moved across the Belarusian border.
As Russian tanks entered the outskirts of Kyiv, the Ukrainian government instructed citizens to stay home and resist by preparingย Molotov cocktails.
Although itโs still early, and Russia still has yet to deployย roughly halfย of the troops surrounding Ukraine, a surprising factor has been the resilience of Ukrainian forces. A British governmentย statementย said that Ukraineโs military had presented โfierce resistance across all axes of Russiaโs advanceโ and that it was unlikely that Russia had โachieved its planned Day 1 military objectives.โ
With Ukraineโs forces otherwise overmatched by Russian resources, itโs not clear how long they can hold out. Ukrainian military officials have kept an upbeat posture, charging that itโs the Russians who donโt have the stomach for a fight. The โenemy has an extremely low morale,โ a Ukrainianย armed forces statementย said. Ukraineโs government appears to be throwing everything at its defense, even going so far as to distributeย 10,000 assault riflesto civilians in Kyiv on Thursday.
The White House is still weighing whether to arm Ukrainian resistance efforts, amid worries that it could be seen as a co-combatant in the conflictโand targeted as such, FPโs Robbie Gramer and Jack Detschย report.
More sanctions.ย
The United States expanded its financial sanctions efforts on Thursday, effectively blocking Russiaโs largest lender, Sberbank, from transacting in U.S. dollars and imposing penalties on โnearly 80 percent of all banking assets in Russia,โ according to the U.S. Treasury.
Asked whether removing Russia from the SWIFT bank messaging system was off the table, U.S. President Joe Bidenย impliedย that a disagreement between European allies stopped that move for now but that: โThe sanctions we imposed exceed SWIFT. The sanctions we imposed exceed anything thatโs ever been done.โ
But, as Adam Tooze explains in aย Chartbookย analysis, the carve-out for energy-related transactionsโapparently at the request of EU governmentsโmeans Russian energy firms can still sell oil and gas as long as itโs not through a Russian bank.
โAmerica has introduced sweeping sanctions against all the major banks of Russia that do everything but block the most important transactions that might actually impose severe costs both on Russia and Americaโs major European allies,โ Tooze wrote. That means the energy sales from Russia to the Westโestimated atย $600 millionย per dayโcan, in theory, continue unabated.
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky has criticized the moves as insufficient. โWe hear in our sky and see on our earth that this was not enough,โ he said early Friday, as he pledged to stay in the country.
Dissent in Russia.ย
Demonstrations against the war took place inย at least 47 citiesย across Russia on Thursday, no idle exercise in a country where space for civil protest is shrinking rapidly. The actions led to more than 1,700 arrests, according to a local rights group.
One hundred prominent journalists and foreign policy experts in Russia, many from theย Kommersantย newspaper, signedย a letterย condemning the invasion, saying it has โno justification.โ
Despite the dissent, public opinion in Russia appears to lean toward the invasion. Aย CNN pollย published on Feb. 23 found that 50 percent of respondents would support Russia using military force to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, just 25 percent of respondents said Russia shouldnโt.
Knock-on effects.ย
Although the Western sanctions have yet to bite, the market uncertainty since the invasion has already cost Russiaโs billionaire oligarchsย $39 billionย in losses. They had already lostย $32 billionย since the beginning of the year.
Russia has already suffered one soft-power defeat, as European soccer governing body UEFA axed St. Petersburg as this yearโs host of the Champions League Final.
Chinaโs reaction.ย
In aย combative press conferenceย on Thursday, Chinaโs foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying refused to confirm whether Chinese authorities believed Russiaโs actions constituted an invasion. She also rejected the charge that Chinese President Xi Jinping knew about the invasion in advance, and dodged when called upon to condemn Russiaโs actions.
Beijing has thrown Moscow one economic lifeline, announcing the removal of restrictions on Russianย wheat importsย on Thursday. Chinaโs customs administration said that the agreement with the worldโs largest wheat exporter had been made as part of a package of deals signed during Russian President Vladimir Putinโs visit to Beijing earlier this month.
Delhi dallies.ย
India, which holds strong defense ties with Russia, is also hedging for the time being. Its government has yet to condemn the invasion. President Biden said the United States was still in โconsultationsโ with India. โWe havenโt resolved that completely,โ Biden added.
The Indian and Chinese stance may become clearer today at the U.N. Security Council, whereย a resolution to condemn Russiaโs invasionย and call on its forces to withdraw is expected to come to a vote. China is expected to abstain, Russia is expected to veto, but it remains to be seen whether India will join the other 12 nations in supporting the resolution. (FPโs Michael Kugelman goes deeper on the challenges the war poses to India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in this weekโsย South Asia brief)
How are leading educators preparing the next generation of international affairs professionals to tackle the worldโs toughest challenges? Readย Foreign Policyโsย Guide to Leaders in Graduate Education, featuring innovative grad school deans, directors, and faculty members who are shaping tomorrowโs experts in security, diplomacy, global health, and global development.ย Learn more
What Weโre Following Today
Summits on Ukraine.ย
NATO leaders will meet virtually today to discuss reactions to Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine. Sweden and Finland will also be represented at the meeting.
In Warsaw, Polish President Andrzej Duda hosts fellow Bucharest Nine leaders Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia for discussions on Ukraine.
